MATH 135 Term Project.
The point of this project is to make an educated guess (inference) about a specific population, using statistics and statistical methods. Since this is the election year we will use a topic that is relevant to the current event. As you complete this project I hope you will see how the concept we learn can be applied to real life situation.
STEPS
1. Population and how you phrase your question:
Pick a presidential candidate that you’re interested to study and formulate a question for your survey. Your questions can be something like:
– Who do you vote for?
– Did you vote for Clinton or Trump?
Note that you need to pick one candidate as your topic, for example if your topic is Clinton, then every vote for her is a yes, and everything else (Trump or a third party) count as a no.
2. Null and Alternative Hypothesis.
Pick a % value for your null hypothesis that you think the candidate will receive. For example you believe Trump will get 42% of the vote. Briefly explain why you decide to choose that alternative hypothesis. Alternately you can wait after the result is announced and use the actual number.
3. Sampling
I will not accept convenience sampling, like Facebook. Collect the desired data. Describe when, where, and how the data was obtained. Try to collect from a wide variety of population group to avoid bias in your sample. (i.e Students, White collar, Blue collar, Young Adult, Elder …etc…). Sample size at least 50
4. Descriptive Statistics
Calculate p hat(sample %), confirm np≥5 n(1-p)>5, give the variance and standard deviation of p hat.
5. Graph
Bar graph. 1st two bars: % in category of focus from null hypothesis, and % in other. 2nd two bars: % in category of focus from sample, and % in other. The first pair(y/n) is from the null hypothesis, the second pair(y/n) is from the sample.
6. Confidence Intervals
Create a 95% confidence interval of p.
7. Hypothesis Test
Do a test at the 5% level of significance. Find your critical value. Compute your test statistic. Compute your p-value. Make a decision to reject the null hypothesis or not.
8. Conclusion
Finally, tell us, the audience what this rejection or non-rejection means for your population, in understandable terms. If you like, you can state any interesting facts/ideas/thoughts about your project. The project must be turned in by the last day of class, no exception. You can turn in a hand written project or typed, but it must be clean, clear and concise to receive full grade.
Extra credit:
15%: if all items on your project are typed (you will need to figure out how to do the chart on the computer i.e Excel). You can earn up to 10% extra on this project depend on well you present your project (clear chart, professional layout …etc…)
